Decision-Making on the Fringes
How to Act Boldly When the Next Move Isn’t Obvious
When an organization faces obvious danger in the near future but still has time to act, decision-making can feel straightforward.
If a hurricane is forecasted to hit your city in a couple of days, or a security threat is made against an event in a few hours, organizational leaders tend to act decisively. They evacuate, shelter in place, call for support, adjust operations, or do whatever else is needed. In these cases, having a known, imminent risk gives executives the confidence to initiate protective action.
Of course, there are always incidents where decision paralysis sets in, or where becoming overwhelmed by events due to a lack of preparedness can stall action. But here, I'm talking about a well-intentioned, reasonably prepared organization. I’m also not referring to the distant threats that people should prepare for but dismiss because they don’t pose an immediate impact—that’s a topic for another day. Generally speaking, people act when it is clear that they must.
What’s harder is when you’re on the fringes of the incident. You’re not in the direct line of fire, but you know you’ll be affected—you just don’t know how badly. Consider recent Hurricanes Helene and Milton: while the hurricanes were concentrated in one location, they were spawning tornadoes, dropping large amounts of rain, and impacting a much larger area. If you were in one of those “fringe areas,” do you call in staff, change operations, or shut things down?
These situations are tough because the uncertainty is greater. It isn’t just a “life safety decision,” either—trust, political capital, and credibility are at stake. It’s easy to say you’d make the tough choice and put people first, but how many times can you sound the alarm before people stop listening if you develop a perceived track record of overreacting?
If you’re right, you’ve simply done your job. If you’re wrong, brace yourself for questions and comments from the peanut gallery. Whether the criticisms are about inaction or overreaction, there will always be people who feel the decision was unnecessary or not decisive enough.
When leaders hesitate in these situations, it’s often out of fear—fear of the fallout if they’re wrong. It’s easier to play the hero after the crisis hits. Even if their actions aren’t perfect, they’re visible. It takes more confidence to act when the outcome is uncertain.
So, how do you develop the confidence to act boldly when potential impacts are not yet clear?
5 Steps to Prepare for Uncertainty
Based on my work with organizations readying themselves for an uncertain future, here are five recommendations and steps to prepare for these situations:
Set Decision-Making Thresholds. Sit down with organizational leaders, executives, and policy group members to establish clear thresholds for action. Define when a situation justifies stepping in, and identify what information they need to confidently support proactive action.
Establish Watch Points and Behind-the-Scenes Actions. Set up low-key measures to monitor the situation, prepare, and pre-position resources in case things escalate. Make this a part of your plan. It’s about being ready and beginning to act without raising alarms prematurely
Be Able to Articulate Your Decision-Making Process. Be clear about the information you’re working with and why you’re making or recommending specific courses of action. For incidents on the fringes, people often think what they know after the event was obvious before the event. Be ready to capture and articulate how you’re using the information available to accomplish the organization’s goals.
Play the Long Game. Build relationships that foster trust and understanding. When people know you’re committed to doing the best you can, in dynamic situations, with limited information, they’re more likely to understand that sometimes events don’t unfold exactly as early indicators suggest. Building this trust gives others confidence in your judgment, meaning they’ll support you even when the calls are tough.
Have a Plan for False Alarms. You will get it wrong sometimes. Acknowledge when you do and take proactive steps to rebuild trust. This way, you maintain the influence and credibility needed the next time the situation presents itself
The Payoff: Readiness for the Big One (and the Not-So-Big Ones)
Navigating these borderline cases—the ones that aren’t obvious—builds the skills that will matter most when the big one finally arrives. You get to dial in your alert systems, refine your communication strategies, and sharpen the organization’s ability to respond. Facing fringe events is one way to prepare for the real crisis.